The COMRADITY Journal

Now this is an interesting community . . .

I was beginning to think that I had found the end of the internet. 

I started using Twitter to find interesting people who share my dedication to making something better for the audience and businesses in the media and marketing industry. By interesting I mean people who inspire, whom I could learn from, who just make me laugh.  I quickly developed an eye for those who seemed interesting but really are trying to sell something that they "wish" would be better but really is the same old stuff.

At the same time I tried Facebook where friends (non-business acquaintances) started networking with me.  I didn't go out and look for them.  They came to me.  Quickly my "universe" became a hodge podge of people to whom I couldn't communicate with unilaterally (in fact I inadvertantly and legitimately  offended someone because a "baudy" response I made to a friend ended up being seen by their grandchildren). 

So I spend most of my time on Twitter or LinkedIn and dropped Facebook entirely .

When I first started using Twitter, I was making new discoveries of interesting people with ease.  But lately, not so much.  When Twitter added the new feature: "Who to Follow" they were people I had already nixed because they are selling the SOS.  So I thought I had found the end of the internet.

But today "Bad Life Decisions" started following me and I checked them out.  Not so many people follow them, (one must be rather brave to click on something that says "Bad Life Decisions") but when you go to their website you realize that an awful lot of interesting stories start with a "BLD".  In fact, when you think about it, all your favorite movies and tv shows and books pivot around "BLDs".  Sometimes they are uncomfortable and sometimes they are cliche.  But fundamentally, it is the "BLDs" that make life interesting. Here's their "mission statement":

". . . we created badlifedecisions.com. Because sometimes you puke on the girl you like. Sometimes you go out to a diner at 3 AM and get mugged by a homeless man. Sometimes having fun means making the choice that’s Bad. . . 'Give us your tired, your poor, your hilarious memories yearning to breath free, the wretched refuse of your teeming life. . .'"

This is the kind of community I find interesting.  One with people who actually make decisions and take actions that serendipitously leads to a story worth telling!  Something tells me these people aren't spending a ton of time browsing social networks for old friends they lost touch with, or, becoming "fans" of brand pages.

How about you?

HOW MANY FACEBOOK ACTIVE USERS ARE THERE?

UPDATED:  Facebook revenues are driven by scale and data mining.  Some say the May 31, 2010 "quitfacebookday" was a bust because Unique Visitor numbers continue to climb.  But there is evidence that the traffic may be inflated by people changing their Facebook status, and/or tools like Facebook Connect and the Like button.  However, the data mining value is protected - even the information of those who have deactivated, deleted accounts, or just removed Facebook content from their pages.

Unique Monthly Visitor numbers are used by Facebook to define "active" users in the press.   The "500 Million and growing" reports we hear so often from Facebook and the press are global numbers:   http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-reaches-500-million-users-2010-5 and http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/21/facebook-500-million-visitors-comscore/. 

The US numbers are about a fifth,  at just over 100 Million.  Comscore data that says that monthly unique visitors were 111.9 million  Download ComScore 2009 US Digital Year in Review: Page 7 in December 2009.  Corroborating the latter, Nielsen reports 116.3 Million unique visitors in the month of January 2010.  http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/facebook-users-average-7-hrs-a-month-in-january-as-digital-universe-expands/

On May 17th (2 weeks before the May 31st, "QuitFacebookDay"), Fortune questioned the backlash and reported that Facebook added a net gain of 10 million after announcing the controversial privacy changes.  http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/17/what-backlash-facebook-is-growing-like-mad/

A Comscore chart confirms that US monthly unique visitors increased at a much faster pace after a plateau from December 2009 - March 2010.  The increase coincides with the Facebook policy change to shift of the default "share" from private to public and the launch of the "Like" button in April 2010.  Makes you wonder what the change in momentum means.   

Are these unique visitors "active" or "deactivating"?  According to an ABC News investigation,  Facebook does track deletions and deactivations but does not publically report them.   In the ABC report, search marketing expert Danny Sullivan suggests interest in deleting Facebook accounts was significant since it did impact Google search trends:

To see how recent the Facebook trend was, Sullivan used Google Trends, which shows the popularity of certain searches over certain periods of time.

Although there was not enough search volume for "how do I delete my facebook account," he said he found something interesting when he entered "delete facebook account."

"Yes, there is definitely a rising trend," he wrote. "Over time, more and more searches at Google have involved it, it appears."  Quitting Facebook: What Happens When You Deactivate?

Likewise, according to Joseph Dee, who started the movement,  "quitfacebookday" was a trending topic on Twitter. 

Directionally, polls suggest the Facebook backlash was real:

"60% consider quitting facebook" http://news.yahoo.com/s/ytech_gadg/20100521/tc_ytech_gadg/ytech_gadg_tc2184 

"40%+ of Mashable readers say no" http://mashable.com/2010/05/31/quit-facebook-day/

"78% of CBS poll takers say Facebook privacy control changes did not go far enough" http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20006164-501465.html

In addition to considering deactivating or deleting accounts, Facebook members also reacted to privacy policy changes by removing content:

"only 2% say they would quit, but 81% say they are using Facebook more carefully" http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/techchron/detail?&entry_id=64627

The other question raised by the change in Unique Visitor momentum in April 2010 is how Facebook user participation in Facebook "partners" is reflected in the Unique Visitor numbers.     Fortune reports "partners" have grown to 100,000  http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/17/what-backlash-facebook-is-growing-like-mad. 

One way Facebook has developed partners is Facebook Connect (launched in Spring, 2008) in which Facebook member activity on other sites is dynamically published on their Facebook page, without ever going to www.facebook.com.  Does this count as a Unique Montly Visitor for Facebook?

Another way Facebook has developed "partners" is the Facebook "Like" button.  The launch coincides with the sudden increase in Unique Monthly Visitor momentum in April 2010.  Wonder how Facebook "Like" button use factors into the Unique Visitor numbers, even if you never visit www.facebook.com? 

Another Facebook partner are 3rd part y data miners.  You'd think that removing content, deactivating or deleting your account would devalue Facebook to 3rd parties.  But it appears 3rd parties still have access to information.  According to the ABC investigation (above): 

If a user decides to deactivate an account, the profile information is no longer available on Facebook, but the site still saves all of the information in case the user returns.

"We preserve the account in its entirety. People often deactivate for temporary reasons and expect their content and information to be there for them when they return," a Facebook spokesman said in a statement.

and Facebook is vague about what happens when the account is "deleted" rather than just "deactivated": 

After the 14 days, Facebook said it purges the user's information from the site. The policy says copies of some materials may remain for "technical reasons," but Facebook did not immediately explain this further.

 Those "technical reasons"  include obligations to 3rd parties or partners.   When you deactivate or delete your account they still have access to some materials.    The ABC investigation confirms:

Still, Facebook said third-party applications or sites might be able to hold on to that information "to the extent permitted by our policies."

When good ideas go bad

When “Seamless” becomes surreptitious information gathering and exploitation.

When “Co-creation” becomes a cheaper way to get good ideas, exploiting the creative class.

When “Influencer Marketing becomes "Ambush Marketing".

When “Technology” becomes a reason to say “new, improved” instead of delivering something worth paying more for.

When a “Free” becomes Bait and Switch

When “Community” is all about a lot of “Me’s”

When “Earned Media” is about generating a lot of publicity by screwing one or more people.

Please add more examples in comments.

Why isn't Mashable publishing this post?

Mashable reports "How Facebook's New Privacy Controls Work" but won't post this reply to @NeilAdam:

Thanks for the link. So nothing has changed: Facebook's policy is that once you OR YOUR FRIENDS opt-in, they can share your personally identified info with affiliates without further opting-in. This parenthetical comment in the above link is the point: (applications and websites you and your friends use *already have access to your name, profile picture, gender, networks, friend list, user ID, and any other information you share with everyone*). This standard is way below what is required for commercial emailing which requires a double *opt-in*.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised by the neutral to positive coverage of the Facebook changes by ad based media since they plan to take advantage of the same policies Facebook uses.

They want Rep. Rick Boucher's proposed Internet Privacy Policy, which sanctions Facebook's policy to share personally identified info with "affiliates" unless you opt-out, to go through.

Unless of course you opt-out.

Comradity would like to know how you think your information should or shouldn't be shared. We will share the results with Rep. Rick Boucher and our clients only. We want our clients to do what you want not just follow Facebook's example.

Here's your chance to opt-in or opt-out to Facebook's policy being the standard for Internet Privacy Policy law by Rick Boucher: http://www.comradity.com/comradity/how-do-you-f...

 

Why isn't the New York Times publishing this comment?

UPDATE: NYTIMES finally posted this 5/25 comment on 6/1:

The NY Times started a discussion called: Should the Government Take On Facebook , but my comment is not accepted. . . Here it is:

Should the government take on Facebook?

*More importantly*, should the government sanction Facebook's "opt-out" standard for sharing personally identified information with any "affiliate" a website makes a deal with? Which is sanctioned by the Internet Privacy Policy bill which Rep. Rick Boucher has drafted http://www.boucher.house.gov...

I guess we should not be surprised that any media which relies on ad $ for revenue does not want people to know that Facebook's opt-out policy may become the standard for ALL media by law.

Comradity does want to know if people want to opt-in or opt-out. We will only share aggregated, anonymous results with Rep. Rick Boucher and with our clients who also want to know: http://www.comradity.com...

Sincerely,
Katherine Warman Kern
@comradity

 

How ironic is this?

Serendipitously, I read two articles consecutively which tell a very ironic tale about Mr. Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook.

The first article, by Nick Carr, focused on this Zuckerberg 2009 quote¹: “You have one identity… The days of you having a different image for your work friends or co-workers and for the other people you know are probably coming to an end pretty quickly… Having two identities for yourself is an example of a lack of integrity”

The second article, by Nicholas Carlson, focused on this IM² from Zuckerberg's days at Harvard:

Zuck: Yeah so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard

Zuck: Just ask.

Zuck: I have over 4,000 emails

, pictures, addresses, SNS

[Redacted Friend's Name]: What? How'd you manage that one?

Zuck: People just submitted it.

Zuck: I don't know why.

Zuck: They "trust me"

Zuck: Dumb fucks.

1. Danah Boyd shared the quote here.  She cites it is from the soon to be released book,  The Facebook Effect  by David Kirkpatrick.

2. SAI sources, according to Nicholas Carlson

2020

The year is 2020. 

Media Programming Companies, e.g., Warner Brothers, Dreamworks, Pixar, Time, Disney, 20^th Century Fox, Newscorp, Viacom, Gannet, McClatchy, Omnimedia, Harpo, dominate the industry.

Content Creators will be independent.  The price they command will be directly related to audience response, so they are obsessed with managing their core fanbase relationships. They will be served and nurtured by transmedia communities that organize communities of students, teachers, mentors, vendors, fans, and Media programming companies seeking content.

Media programming companies are run by former P&G, Unilever, Nike, Apple, and Amazon executives.  Consumer marketing effectiveness determines competitive advantage.  Wall Street will value these companies based on both consumer subscription levels and the premium paid per subscriber.

Media Programming Company executives manage a stable of brand managers responsible for each Media Programming Brand, supported by production, promotion, customer service, and research professionals, as well as a tech infrastructure department.  Brand Manager compensation is based on audience participation and subscriber retention.  They will be trained in buying content, packaging & pricing strategy, effective management of production, promotion, and customer service professionals, and networking with other media programming brands who share the same audience.  Support professionals will be compensated based on their department’s contribution to overall corporate profitability.

Media technology companies, e.g., Comcast, Verizon, AOL, (formerly known as I-Tunes) I-Media, will compete to win the delivery service business of media programming companies.  Consumers subscribe to only the media programming brands they want.   

Communication technology companies, e.g., Google, Amazon, Yahoo, Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, will provide the utilities for individuals to communicate and organize the data generated for analysis by the industry.

Merchandising Agents, e.g., Digitas, Rapp, Wunderman/TNS, MRM, Dentsu, DHA Group, will help brands optimize the merchandising of direct digital offers - placement, messaging, conversion tactics, etc.

How close are we?

Twitter Wins My Test of Twitter vs. Google Adwords

On Sunday October 11, 2009, Chris Anderson's Free was featured on CBS Sunday Morning.  So I asked myself - how do I take advantage of the curiosity created by this news story to drive people to my post that summarizes several reviews - pro and con - of the book?

In summary, I learned that Twitter worked better than AdWords probably because the variables affecting success are more likely to be in my control.  Additionally, I can easily measure my conversion rate with Twitter (12 of my 159 followers clicked, or a conversion rate of 7.5%) allowing me to learn by comparing the effectiveness of this Tweet's content to others.

DISCUSSION:

I tried two things. 

First, on Adwords, I bid $.75 (the recommended bid) for searches of the following words: Free, Freemium, Chris Anderson, Long Tail.  The ad read:

FREE by C. Anderson
Discussion of several reviews
by a Hybrid Media Design Company
www.Comradity.com

Second, I twittered the following with a bit.ly link to the article:

CBS Sunday Morning covers Chris Anderson's FREE - "Here's a discussion of several reviews http://bit.ly/mGtJz (Wonder what Jobs thinks?)"

The results for one day:  ZERO clicks from Adwords.  12 clicks on the bit.ly link.

More importantly, why?

AdWords would have worked if 4 things happened, the first 3 are out of my control:

1. CBS Sunday Morning has the popularity and credibility to trigger curiosity
2. The curious go online to search for more information on Google
3. My Ad ran when the keywords were searched
4. The content of the ad was compelling enough to stimulate a click (I control this)
   

The Tweet would have worked if 4 things happen, with 1 being out of my control:

1. I had built a list of followers (I control)
2. The Free issue is relevant to the followers (I control)
3. They saw my tweet
4. My tweet was compelling enough to result in a click (I control)

Here's what happened:

Zero clicks was the Adword result. According to Bit.ly there were 12 clicks on the link to my post.

When I went onto my Google account to check out why my ad did not delivered any clicks, I found out there were two problems that, although I opted to be alerted by email of any problems, I was never alerted.  First, although I uploaded my credit card information, they said it hadn't registered.  And second, they said my ad was "pending review" ("Your ad is eligible to run on Google search pages. However, we haven't yet verified that your ad follows all of our advertising policies. Until your ad is reviewed and approved, it won't be eligible to run on our search partners or on content network placements. We review ads in the order they're received, so please be patient while your ads are in review.") The only email I received from AdWords was to alert me that my campaign was expiring.  I was fully aware that.  Since I assumed the news value "half life" of the keywords was a day, I only cared about running the ad that day.

I have been on Twitter since July when Chris Anderson's Book, FREE, was launched, because I believe there is a need for more voices building confidence in the demand for media worth paying for.  I have spent a lot of time writing posts and tweeting facts and opinions from both sides of the issue.  I have also spent a lot of time vetting followers this content attracted and eliminating followers who have some other motive for following me.  So I have made my best effort to take advantage of what Twitter allows me to control.  The one thing out of my control - my followers being online on Sunday morning - was probably not optimal. 

CONCLUSION

Going in, I assumed only three out of the four variables affecting the success of the AdWords campaign were out of my control.  But it turns out that Google AdWords adds more hurdles that are out of my control as well.  Although I thought I had opted in to be alerted of any problems, to assure my ad would run, it turns out Adwords only alerts you if your ad is expiring and not when payment information had not registered.  So, I had even less control over my success with AdWords than I assumed. 

My best efforts to take advantage of what Twitter allows me to control did result in some clicks.  Additionally, I can measure the conversion rate, allowing me to learn how the content of these tweets compares to others I craft.

Tweet Archives - Who_Knew?

Starting with most recent on September 24, 2009

What generation are you really? I'm a Gen Jones who's a Gen Y. http://bit.ly/76z3N via @margaretweigel & @penelopetrunk

@csrollyson thx for info about truetwit. I like that idea a lot!

RT @JWhite 47 ways to fine tune your brain http://bit.ly/11RgFn MY choices: dark chocolate, laugh, music, eat well, & well others

RT @sjcobrien: I am thankful to live in the age of the Internet. Without it, I would never have seen this: http://bit.ly/18npsL

*RT @paulocoelho Cloning Confucius: a clear conscience is a sign of bad memory

RE: @fredwilson I was disappointed by the healthcare speech. There is so much confusion. I would have preferred he add… http://disq.us/cyy0

Have you seen these enlightening articles on healthcare costs: New Yorker http://bit.ly/PDFO2 and Atlantic http://bit.ly/Zm0nZ

Happy B-lated Frammas Day RT@johnrobinson Judging by the tweets about 9-9-9 I follow more people on East Coast . .

Happy B-lated Frammas Day RT@Scobleizer Happy 9:09 on 9/9/09! I don't put tweets like these on http://Twitter.com/scobleizer/favorites

Happy b-lated Frammas Day RT@davewiner 9090909090909090909. . . .

Happy B-lated Frammas Day! RT @xarker Note to everyone pissing on the happy silliness of 090909: Lighten up. . .

wsj reports "uninsured" increased to 46.3M from 45.7M 2008 v 2007. Add the Millions laid off since 2008 who can't afford cobra.

RE: @fredwilson keeps lots of really competent people out of politics and probably dilutes the effectiveness of many wh… http://disq.us/cymb

@Jim_Kern Happy Frammis Day! 09/09/09

1969 was a turning point RT NYT http://bit.ly/1Umjw3 via @brainpicker

THX! @crystal for getting rid of the #spam flood from http://wowurl.com

@crystal I am being swarmed spammed? by followers who all share one web url http://wowurl.com How do I block anyone with this url?

@fredwilson how do you mail pdf to kindle?

Did Gitmo consider converting detainees to Mets fans to torture? re: @davewiner Unassisted triple beat Mets. http://c.oy.ly/kez8

@mzkagan I Already forwarded tech support cheat sheet http://xkcd.com/627/ to my parents!

DITTTO RT @wmougayar [a great read] bgurley: My thoughts on ..VC market & where .. headed http://bit.ly/8nIqh

clash of the pompous! RT @charris1980 [Funny] RT @popurls: MIT Letter http://pop.ly/2olz

why military leaders may be well-prepared to solve complex problems in business http://bit.ly/43CnXM

RT @Sheamus Epic high five. http://bit.ly/ymMvi ME: WOW

WOW This is a stark reminder of the impact of boomers on this economy now and going foward http://bit.ly/sCYQf

@stevebuttry thanks for the much needed laugh http://tr.im/wVIh via @BenLaMothe!

RT @mashable 13 things to do on twitter beside tweet http://bit.ly/4fbCeq [me:twitpay is #futureofmedia]

@copyblogger re: unhappy people RT @NutTheSquirrel If Ignorance is bliss, why aren't more people happy?

A clue for the #future of media RT @NutTheSquirrel If all the world is a stage, then where does the audience sit?

RT @paulocoelho Why so much penis and watches spam? The best answer @victor_torres : to avoid premature ejaculation

Power of a 2-way medium: "I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand." @paulocoelho

RE: @fredwilson Re: 2 votes for limitation of card analogy. Make that 3. My Queen of Spades analogy is about luck and… http://disq.us/1wo6

RE: @fredwilson Key olympic course sailing strategic decision - is the wind shifting persistently in one direction or o… http://disq.us/1wo3

RE: @fredwilson The Queen of Spades in Hearts. You can shoot the moon with her or lose big. http://disq.us/1wnv

RT @BarackObama NYT oped on HCR @http://twurl.nl/8uggqb [IMHO: preempt "fearmongers" with more specifics on point 2]

@cshirky here's how about.com says to find sites linking to url: http://twurl.nl/sd1s5v

RT @IanAspin @DanielPink RT @copyblogger: What if Madison Avenue Created the Stop Sign? - http://bit.ly/WBQqQ [me:LOL]

RT @mashable Twitter Retweets: What You Need to Know [Slideshow] - http://bit.ly/12nvGw

RT @NutTheSquirrel If Ignorance is bliss, why aren't more people happy? #bingo

woops forgot the link to the Tattoo Removal IPO article:http://twurl.nl/mv02y7

The tattoo removal IPO - NEXT will be the TWITTER comment removal IPO

RT @joshk Good post by @Bgurley on the “Free” http://frc.vc/2 [also good] RT@GilR http://is.gd/1yEtI [let's talk about value then price!]

#who_knew? a ukulele could.. RT @JamesPew While My Ukulele Gently Weeps http://bit.ly/14G7RU